There are a lot of predictions to be made in our “Who Will Win the Runoffs®?” series, but few are as difficult to predict as the Grand Touring classes.
While the likes of Formula Vee®, Spec Miata, and Spec Racer® Ford Gen3 are also hard to predict, SCCA’s GT classes toss ridiculous horsepower and copious amounts of engineering freedom into the mix. In GT, the right combination of car and driver could score someone a runaway National Championship title at the SCCA Runoffs. Then again, that same combo could lead to a car that powers through the first third of the race like a true thoroughbred, but wanes in the second or third act. And then there’s the “what if” of rain, where we’ve seen factory race cars drive circles around GT cars that would have otherwise run to a dominating win.
We’ve witnessed it all.
So what will happen at this year’s Sept. 28-Oct. 6 SCCA National Championship Runoffs presented by Sunoco? It’s anyone’s guess. And speaking of guessing…
Who Will Win GT-1?
The GT-1 ground-pounders always put on a great show and make some of the best noises at the Runoffs.
David Pintaric says that his good friend Tony Ave is one of the best in the biz, and is faster than him. Despite that, Pintaric is no GT-1 noob, and that’s why he’s our pick to win the class at this year’s Runoffs. Pintaric has had several great races this year, plus he’s sitting second in the Hoosier Racing Tire SCCA Super Tour points. Ave is fast and wily, but while we’re betting he doesn’t have enough to close the deal this year, we’re most definitely not putting money on it. We would, however, put money on Pintaric and Ave owning the top two steps of the podium.
Pintaric and Ave are running state-of-the-art GT-1 cars, while Michael Lewis is still working hard to make his 24-year-old Jaguar competitive. With the edge the newer cars have, Adam Romito with his Dodge Challenger and Dave Ruehlow in his Corvette will be mixing it up with the top three, but we expect Lewis to use his racecraft to claim the last step on the podium.
In short, expect an amazing race — and if it rains, expect the unexpected.
Podium Predictions: GT-1
1. David Pintaric, No. 57 Kryderacing/Ave Motorsports/Goodyear 2022 Ford Mustang (1 National Championship)
2. Tony Ave, No. 44 Ave Motorsports/Optech 2015 Ford Mustang (4 National Championships)
3. Michael Lewis, No. 12 Goodyear 2001 Jaguar XKR (10 National Championships)
Who Will Win GT-2?
Our prediction for the GT-2 win is still a little unsure if he will be as competitive as he hopes.
“My eligibility and ability to participate in the Runoffs in GT-2 has been up in the air for the past month,” says Charlie Peter. “I participated in the Porsche Sprint Challenge (PSC) in my GT-2 car, and someone crashed me pretty hard. It’s been a challenge piecing the car together for the Runoffs.”
When we spoke to Peter about a month before the event, he said there was no guarantee he’d make the race, but that the repair looked promising.
With the exception of the PSC incident, Peter has been having a great season. “The season has been enjoyable, to say the least,” he says. “Jumping between the SCCA and PSC has been a worthwhile challenge. The high point of my season has been driving Ozark International Raceway in my GT-2 car. It is easily my favorite track in the country and a true pleasure to race on.”
While suggesting that there are 18 drivers in GT-2 who could be racing for a win, he believes his closest competitors will be Tony Ave and Jonathan Start.
“I think Start will give me the best race,” Peter admits. “I got a glimpse of his capabilities this year at the WeatherTech Chicago Region® June Sprints®. We would have had a great race had it not been cut short due to the cautions.”
We agree that Start will be in the mix — our crystal ball shows him as finishing second. The same crystal ball says it’s likely that Brad McAllister will finish third. What the crystal ball doesn’t factor in, however, is the utter determination all three will have as they see the possibility of Runoffs gold.
Podium Predictions: GT-2
1. Charlie Peter, No. 166 Phenix 2018 Porsche GT3 Cup
2. Jonathan Start, No. 51 Kalin Construction/Hoosier 2010 Dodge Viper ACRX
3. Brad McAllister, No. 24 2016 Ford Mustang, Periodontal Associates
Who Will Win GT-3?
All three of our top-three GT-3 picks have had problems this year.
Michael Lewis thinks he and his team have underperformed both in reliability and pace during much of 2024. He’s optimistic, though, and so are we — in fact, he’s our pick to win the class.
“We did make a big step forward at the June Sprints, and I think we’re back to our usual selves,” Lewis says. As others have mentioned for other classes, Lewis believes his primary competition will be in the form of Tony Ave.
While Ave’s primary car was destroyed at Watkins Glen, his back-up is stout — likely better than many of his competitors’ “A” cars.
Lewis also notes: “Jeff Dernehl is also not in his primary car, so he is a bit of an unknown.”
Ave does face a challenge; he has three different cars entered in three classes — that’s always tough. But Ave knows what he’s doing. As does Dernehl and, for that matter, Lewis. This one is a toss-up, and that’s before you add in the likes of Warren Montague and a few others. But come the checkered flag, we anticipate Lewis will have earned his 11th National Championship title.
Podium Predictions: GT-3
1. Michael Lewis, No. 32 Goodyear 1992 Mazda RX7 (10 National Championships)
2. Jeff Dernehl, No. 65 Roswell Outback Auto/Hoosier/Lucky’s Bar &Grill 1995 Mazda RX-7 (1 National Championship)
3. Tony Ave, No. 44 2015 Acura RSX (4 National Championships)
Who Will Win GT-Lite?
Chris Bovis doesn’t think he should be our favorite for a win in GT-Lite — but that’s not changing our minds.
“We had a good early season … with some favorable results against Peter [Shadowen] and Mike [Lewis], but Road America is very different than Sebring and Road Atlanta,” Bovis says. “I think Road America plays to Peter’s strengths, and we’ll have to overcome a lot.”
One of Shadowen’s strengths, Bovis says, is that his car is the fastest over three sections of Road America — this is, in part, why we think he’ll finish a close second this year.
Bovis also believes that Graham Fuller and Brian Linn will be very competitive, and we can’t say we disagree, although they’ll all have to get passed Michael Lewis, who we predict will be running a strong third when the checkered flag waves.
In a nutshell, Bovis is completely correct when he says: “There a lot of fast cars this year. It’s the Runoffs and everyone brings a little extra, so who knows.”
Bovis has had a lot of fun this year and hopes it continues. “The two highlights of the season were going to Atlanta for the first time, and narrowly winning the Sprints,” he says. “I nearly lost the Sprints after starting 16th and getting up to second overall and leading GTL. [Then] we had a small but significant issue on the last lap, got knocked off track at [Turn] 13, and barely held on for the win.”
With all of the talent packed in GT-Lite this year, we suspect Bovis’s Runoffs race will be just as wild of a ride.
Podium Predictions: GT-Lite
1. Chris Bovis, No. 178 Goodyear Schroth Safety 1988 Honda CRX (3 National Championships)
2. Peter Shadowen, No. 72 Road N Race/ Automotive/ Goodyear/ HPD/ Redline/Hawk 1990 Honda CRX Si (5 National Championships)
3. Michael Lewis, No. 32 Goodyear 1992 Mazda RX7 (10 National Championships)
Catch the Action Live
Qualifying at the National Championship Runoffs takes place Oct. 1-3, with Hagerty Race Days falling on Oct. 4-6. You can keep up on all of the action by clicking on the Runoffs homepage, where you’ll find the driver entry list, the event schedule, and more.
Races will be broadcast live on Oct. 1-3 on SCCA’s YouTube channel, so be sure to subscribe to the page and ring that bell icon now to get notified when the race broadcasts begin.