The Sept. 28-Oct. 6, 2024, SCCA® National Championship Runoffs® presented by Sunoco will be a wild one for many, many reasons.

Road America, sitting in Wisconsin’s lush Kettle Moraine, was repaved not long ago, meaning the roughly 600 racers entered in this year’s event will be forced to dial in their cars if they want to get the most from it. Also, while many racers experienced wet weather conditions during the WeatherTech Chicago Region® June Sprints® earlier this year, one weekend rarely makes for a perfect setup. Expect all drivers to be constantly testing new setups and reviewing data throughout the Runoffs week.

Some of the drivers who will be doing that the most are the ones piloting the dialed-in machinery of Formula Atlantic® and Formula Continental®. Two of SCCA’s fastest and most precise classes, Atlantic and Continental offer drivers and crew the ability to fine tune their setups — and that’s exactly what many of these drivers live for.

So that begs the question: Who will win this year’s Formula Atlantic and Formula Continental Runoffs races? We tackle that below…

Who Will Win Formula Atlantic?

Forty-six drivers scored Hoosier Racing Tire SCCA Super Tour points in Formula Atlantic this year, putting the class on par with Formula Enterprises® 2 and Formula Vee®, and ahead of Formula F, Formula Continental, and Formula 600. But of those 46 drivers, we think the ones to watch aren’t in the top 10, although one of them is close.

Dudley Fleck sits 11th in the Super Tour points, earned courtesy of a pair of wins at the June Sprints at Road America — the same location of this year’s Runoffs. At the Sprints, Fleck bested a 20-car field, handily winning on Saturday — but Sunday’s story was different. On day two, Fleck’s margin of victory slid from 15 seconds to barely three. Why? Two words: Hans Peter.

Battling back from a Saturday setback, three-time Runoffs Champ Peter turned almost identical lap times as Fleck. And while Peter sits 29th in Super Tour points, that doesn’t reflect what he’s capable of. In our minds, he’s the most likely driver to win this year’s Formula Atlantic race.

“I had some electrical issues this year and only finished one race at the Sprints, finishing second to Dudley Fleck, who is a solid choice to win it all,” Peter says of his race in his Mirl Swan-prepared 2006 Swift 016. “You could also go with James French [to win the Runoffs], who I have raced before and knows Road America better than anyone.”

But there’s another driver who Peter is worried about. “The driver who is probably the most experienced and everyone knows is one of the best in the SCCA is Tony Ave,” Peter admits. “He has the same car as me, and I have never raced against him. He would be my biggest challenger in my mind.”

Podium Prediction: Formula Atlantic
1. Hans Peter, No. 66 2006 Swift 016 (3 National Championships)
2. Dudley Fleck, No. 74 Mazda/Hoosier/Miller High Life/K-Hill 2006 Swift 016 Mazda
3. Tony Ave, No. 44 Optech 2005 Swift 016/Mazda/2300 (4 National Championships)

Who Will Win Formula Continental?

This year will mark Tim Minor’s 15th trip to the Runoffs — and if our prediction is right, it’ll mark the second time he’s stood atop the Runoffs podium. That’s not to say he’s unfamiliar with the Formula Continental podium — far from it. In addition to his FC win in 2019, he’s also earned podium finishes in 2017, ’21, and ’23, with a pair of top five performances to boot.

But while we think this is Minor’s year, we know it won’t be easy — and so does he.

“I’m honored you have chosen me to be on the top step, but I still believe this is anyone’s race, and it always proves to be that in the end,” Minor admits. “There may be some luck involved, but John LaRue, Michael Varacins, Brian Tomasi, Dean Kiriluk, and a host of others will all play into this Runoffs.”

Minor’s list of frontrunners jibes with our own assessment, and we predict two-time Runoffs Champ LaRue to finish second, followed by Varacins, who has seven National Championship titles to his name, although none in Continental.

“I went to the June Sprints with no expectations, and had not been there since 2008,” Minor says. “I was able to win both races, so that is my highlight of the season.”

Both of those June Sprints races saw Minor best LaRue and Varacins, but fastest lap to fastest lap, it was a throwdown — and we’re expecting the same close racing come the Runoffs.

Minor’s prediction for the 2024 Runoffs? “We shall see in the end who will win the Runoffs.”

Podium Prediction: Formula Continental
1. Tim Minor, Automotive Specialist Center/Hoosier Tire/Bungalow Lake House 2010 Citation (1 National Championship)
2. John LaRue, CarbonTech/Elder Law 2007 Citation Snipe FZ (2 National Championships)
3. Michael Varacins, Pepperball/First Strike/Hoosier/Speed Sport Engineering 2020 Van Diemen F2000 (7 National Championships

Catch the Action Live

Qualifying at the National Championship Runoffs takes place Oct. 1-3, with Hagerty Race Days falling on Oct. 4-6. You can keep up on all of the action by clicking on the Runoffs homepage, where you’ll find the driver entry list, the event schedule, and more.

Races will be broadcast live on Oct. 1-3 on SCCA’s YouTube channel, so be sure to subscribe to the page and ring that bell icon now to get notified when the race broadcasts begin.

Formula classes always bring some of the most intense racing at the SCCA® National Championship Runoffs® presented by Sunoco, and we expect that to be no different during the Sept. 28-Oct. 6 Runoffs at Road America. Dig deeper into those Formula classes, and you’ll discover Formula F, Formula Vee®, and Formula 600 consistently bring intense action that’s too close to call.

Which is exactly why we’ve put it on ourselves to try to predict the Runoffs winners in those three classes.

While you’ll undoubtedly recognize the names of the drivers we’ve chosen as our top pics to win gold, you’ll discover despite those racers being class powerhouses, the competition is stiff across the board — which is a fancy way of saying that our predictions could easily be incorrect.

So, who did we select as our top three in Formula F, Formula Vee, and Formula 600? Read on to find out.

Who Will Win Formula F?

Only the foolish would wager against Floridian Jonathan Kotyk claiming a fifth Formula F SCCA National Championship on a track as demanding of previous experience and strategic thinking as Road America.

Nonetheless, the ex-karter and Team USA Scholarship winner faces a significant challenge in his eighth Runoffs appearance, having parked his familiar yellow title-winning Mygale SJ14-Honda in favor of a Kent Ford-powered Swift DB-6

That big change from Honda to Ford comes following his falling short in last year’s Runoffs by a whisker to a Ford-powered Van Diemen, with Nolan Allaer notching the first Runoffs victory for a Ford-engined FF since 2011. That race result triggered fresh thinking about this storied open-wheel class.

After the 2023 Runoffs, Kotyk and his dad flew to the UK where “FFs” are still all Kent-Ford powered. Jonathan drove one in the famed Walter Hayes Trophy race and the pair visited several prep and engine shops.

The Swift-Ford was acquired shortly after their return and Kotyk debuted it at the WeatherTech Chicago Region® June Sprints®. That was a largely unsuccessful weekend for the team, but it in no way discouraged Kotyk.

“[I’m] bringing the same confidence as normal, which is just go in, give it a hundred percent,” Kotyk says, adding with a chuckle, “If it works, great. If it doesn’t? Come back next year, but obviously, just do a better job.”

Though his chassis-engine combo is new, Kotyk has “continuing huge support from Mom and Dad, [Team Pelfrey’s] Jeff and Jessica Bush, GapGuard, Hoosier, and my mentor, Dale Pelfrey.”

Ironically, Kotyk’s toughest competitor will likely be the Team Pelfrey driver he coached to the 2024 FRP F1600 Championship and five Hoosier Racing Tire SCCA Super Tour wins (including a June Sprints sweep), Sebastian Mateo Naranjo — we expect Naranjo to finish on the podium. Also sure to threaten are fellow Team USA Scholarship winner William Ferguson, Calvin Kautz, and Theodore Burns (another one of our podium predictions), all three in ultra-slippery Honda-powered Pipers (Kautz’s distinctively equipped with an F1-style halo).

Podium Prediction: Formula F
1. Jonathan Kotyk, No. 5 1991 Swift DB-6 (4 National Championships)
2. Sebastian Mateo Naranjo, No. 80 Ares Elite Vision/MateoNaranjoRacing.com/Team Pelfrey 2014 Mygale SJ2014
3. Theodore Burns, No. 81 Kellymoss Inc 2011 Piper DF05

Who Will Win Formula Vee?

Maybe this is silly thinking, but it’s an even-numbered year, which is the first strike against Andrew Whitston’s chances of repeating as SCCA Formula Vee National Champion: All three of the Wisconsin native’s Runoffs victories — 2019, 2021, and 2023 — have come from the pole in odd-numbered years.

A bigger hurdle than the calendar for Andrew to overcome, though, is the ever-increasing pace of younger brothers Steve, who is second to Andrew in the 2024 Super Tour standings, and Zachary, a winner at the 2024 June Sprints.

None of that, however, is going to stop us from picking him to win this year’s Formula Vee race.

With immaculate preparation and race-winning horsepower courtesy their always humble dad, “Rocket Ron” (who is also entered, and will be making his 23rd Runoffs appearance), Equipe Whitston is a formidable obstacle to the hopes of others. Atop that group, count 2022 Champ Brian Farnham, Andrew Abbott (on a streak of four-consecutive bronze medal finishes), and young Alex Scaler, who saw his chance at victory slip away in last year’s Runoffs when the race finished under yellow.

The cream generally rises, but in truth it’s foolish to attempt to predict the FV finish at Road America.

“[Road America’s] definitely the worst as far as the finish goes,” says Andrew Whitston. “It’s just a — well, you’re just buying a lottery ticket and you see where you’re at on the last lap.”

His strategy? “Just don’t make a mistake, be there at the end, and see what happens,” he says.

“If the Runoffs was at a different track,” Andrew Whitston goes on, “one that was a lot more technical, I’d definitely say the competition would be Brian Farnham, Alex Scaler, the two Abbott brothers, and then with my brothers — what is that, six or seven cars? But at Road America, you’re gonna throw in another eight to 10 drivers that you weren’t expecting. If they can hang onto the lead pack and get in the right position over the last couple laps, they’re gonna have a chance.

“Vee is always close,” he concludes, adding, “[the race is] really wide open this year.”

Podium Prediction: Formula Vee
1. Andrew Whitston, No. 12 Rocket Motors/LOA Con/Milio’s/Apex Branding 1997 Protoform P2 (3 National Championships)
2. Andrew Abbott, No. 25 Hoosier/Vector Racecars/TJSGears 2009 Vector AM-1
3. Brian Farnham, No. 15 Quixote/Bugslife/Hoosier/Carbotech/Kearney DD 1997 Volkswagen Protoform P2 (1 National Championship)

Who Will Win Formula 600?

There is no “quit” in two-time SCCA National Champion, Mark Donohue Award winner, and reigning President’s Cup recipient Calvin Stewart, whose passion for the sport and the motorcycle-engine-powered Formula 600 class always shines through at the Runoffs, win, lose, or draw. At the wheel once again of the slippery Suzuki-powered Novakar Blade, he is our scribes’ pick to repeat as champion.

The experienced, ultra-talented Michigan anesthesiologist, whose respect for the fourth Commandment (“Remember the Sabbath Day”) keeps him from competing on Saturdays, will be marking his 15th Runoffs start (his second at Road America) where he’ll line up as a strong favorite on the wide-open Wisconsin road course.

“Road America — there’s a lot of drafting,” says Stewart. “It’s a handling track and it’s a top end track, so you’ve got to have both. And there [will be] quite a few fast cars out there.”

The central U.S. location of Elkhart Lake’s historic road course is a boon to F600, which often struggles to fill grids on the coasts. A strong 20+ driver entry for this year’s Runoffs includes three past champions — Stewart (2015, 2023); James Weida (2013), and Sven de Vries (2021, 2022) — and several previous podium finishers, notably 2023 runner-up Jason Martin, 2024 Super Tour champ Keith Joslyn, Eric McRee, Aaron Ellis, David Lapham, and Steve Jondal, who will all be hungry for the win.

Last year, Stewart and Martin were the top four-stroke (Suzuki) motorcycle runners, with Weida and Joslyn leading the two-stroke (Rotax) pack. We expect similar form on Road America’s many long straights, but we think Weida and Joslyn will be the one rounding out this year’s podium.

Podium Prediction: Formula 600
1. Calvin Stewart, No. 07 SabbathTruth.com/Hoosier Tires 2014 Novakar Blade F600 (2 National Championships)
2. James Weida, No. 22 Weida Apartments/Formula X-1 2006 Scorpion W1 (1 National Championship)
3. Keith Joslyn, NO. 55 ASI Signage/Hoosier/Formula X-1/Mitchell Racing/Carbotech/Spirit Motorsports 2009 Scorpion Rotax

Catch the Action Live

Qualifying at the National Championship Runoffs takes place Oct. 1-3, with Hagerty Race Days falling on Oct. 4-6. You can keep up on all of the action by clicking on the Runoffs homepage, where you’ll find the driver entry list, the event schedule, and more.

Races will be broadcast live on Oct. 1-3 on SCCA’s YouTube channel, so be sure to subscribe to the page and ring that bell icon now to get notified when the race broadcasts begin.